Permits up 6.5x, our installs up 20x
Heat-pump-tagged residential permits across Denver, Arapahoe, Boulder, Adams and Douglas counties rose from 56 in 2021 to 364 in 2025, about 6.5x, per Shovels.ai public permit data.
Closed invoices at UniColorado Heating & Cooling and Electrify Colorado show heat pump installs rising from 32 in 2022 to 663 in 2025, about 20x. Both counts are floors, for reasons covered below.
Public permits: 56 in 2021, 364 in 2025
Residential permits tagged as heat pump in the five counties, by year (Shovels.ai monthly county data, pulled April and October 2026):
- 2021: 56
- 2022: 140
- 2023: 210
- 2024: 133 (Shovels shows Boulder County with 371 HVAC permits of every kind that year, against 1,437 in 2023)
- 2025: 364
Shovels tags a permit as a heat pump only when the permit description names one. Most of our own permits that we matched in Shovels are filed as mechanical permits with a blank description, so they carry no heat pump tag.
Aurora, Thornton, Englewood and Wheat Ridge each show 0 to 4 permits of any HVAC kind from 2021 through April 2026, so installs in those cities are missing from these counts.
Our invoices: 32 heat pumps in 2022, 663 in 2025
Closed heat pump installs at UniColorado Heating & Cooling and Electrify Colorado, two affiliated Denver companies, counting invoices of $5,000 or more:
- 2020: 2
- 2021: 4
- 2022: 32
- 2023: 161
- 2024: 276
- 2025: 663
- January 1 to April 17, 2026: 100
In 2025 the same invoices show 663 heat pumps against 32 furnace and AC replacements and 20 furnace-only replacements.
Our 663 installs in 2025 exceed the 364 heat pump permits Shovels tagged across all five counties that year, so the permit tag misses most heat pump installs.
Incentives open during the growth years
The jump came while several incentives overlapped. The data shows timing, not cause.
- Federal 25C tax credit: up to $2,000 on 2023 to 2025 installs. It ended December 31, 2025. Our installs went from 32 in 2022 to 161 in 2023, its first year.
- Colorado heat pump tax credit: $1,500 in 2024 and 2025, $1,000 for 2026 installs.
- Xcel Energy cold-climate rebate: $2,250 per heating ton for Xcel gas customers until September 30, 2026, then $1,500 per heating ton from October 1, 2026.
- Denver CARe program: $1,200 toward a heat pump for Denver residents. It ended in May 2025.
- HEAR: closed in the Front Range on April 28, 2026 and statewide on August 1, 2026.
Power Ahead Colorado ($1,500, no income limit, Denver metro) opened June 29, 2026, after the period these counts cover.
Adams County added the most heat pump permits
Heat-pump-tagged residential permits by county, 2022 against 2025 (Shovels.ai):
- Adams: 17 to 162
- Arapahoe: 9 to 69
- Denver: 2 to 36
- Douglas: 5 to 36
- Boulder: 107 to 61
Our own 1,238 heat pump installs from January 2020 to April 17, 2026 break down as 59% central Denver, 18% west metro (Lakewood, Littleton, Golden, Wheat Ridge, Arvada), 10% south metro (Aurora, Centennial, Parker, Englewood), 3% north metro, 2% Boulder area and 8% elsewhere in Colorado.
What the data does not show
- Brands and models. Shovels does not tag the manufacturer.
- Install quality or how systems run in a Denver winter.
- Commercial and multifamily work. Both datasets here are residential.
- Aurora, Thornton, Englewood and Wheat Ridge, which barely appear in the permit data.
- A full 2026. Our invoice count stops at April 17, 2026.
What a heat pump costs in Denver today
Most Xcel gas customers in the Denver metro pay $14,800 to $18,200 out of pocket for a cold-climate heat pump with a new gas furnace, after rebates of about $7,000 on a 3-ton system and $10,000 on a 5-ton. Before rebates that is $21,000 to $28,000. Examples; your price depends on equipment, size and ductwork.
Going fully electric with an air handler instead of a furnace runs about $500 to $800 more. Adding a heat pump to a furnace you keep is about $10,500 to $14,000 out of pocket. A furnace and AC replacement, with no rebates, is $12,800 to $16,200.
The rebates are Xcel's $1,500 per heating ton (Xcel gas customers only), Power Ahead Colorado's $1,500, and the $1,000 Colorado credit. Power Ahead and the state credit can each be claimed once per address.
Xcel told contractors it may pause paying heat pump rebates after October 19, 2026 because demand outran its 2026 budget (see our payment pause guide). We still take the rebate off your invoice and wait for Xcel ourselves.
On running cost, a heat pump saves mostly on summer cooling and in tight homes. Winter heating cost at Xcel's current rates is about even with a gas furnace.
We File Xcel, Power Ahead and the State Credit for You
UniColorado handles the rebate programs and takes up to $10,000 off a cold-climate system from Mitsubishi, Bosch or Carrier, so you see your out-of-pocket price on the estimate.
