Free HVAC Tool
Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace Calculator
Compare operating costs for Colorado winters. Find your crossover temperature where heat pumps become cheaper than gas, explore dual fuel options, and see how a heat pump changes your solar math.
BlueTM
AI Summary
For most Colorado homes, a dual fuel system is recommended. Gas remains cheap during the coldest days (below 15-20°F), while heat pumps are more efficient above 30°F, where most of Denver's winter hours fall. Dual fuel runs whichever is cheaper at the current temperature: heat pump when COP is high, gas backup when temps drop. Use the calculator to find your crossover point.
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The Energy Economics
Understanding the Crossover Point
Heat pump efficiency (COP) varies by temperature. When COP drops below ~2.8, gas becomes cheaper to operate.
Crossover COP ~2.8
Above COP 2.8, heat pumps cost less to operate than gas. Below COP 2.8, gas is cheaper. Temperature determines your COP.
Gas Is Cheaper Below 15-20°F
When outdoor temps drop below 15-20°F, heat pump COP falls below the crossover point. Gas wins during the coldest weather.
HP Wins Above 30°F
Most Denver winter hours are 25-45°F where heat pumps maintain high COP. This is where you save the most vs gas.
Dual Fuel = Cheapest at Every Temp
Hybrid systems run the heat pump above ~30°F and switch to gas below. You get efficiency most of winter and cheap heat in cold snaps.
Dual Fuel Heat Pump Calculator
Combine heat pump efficiency with gas furnace backup for the lowest operating costs across Colorado winters.
What Is a Dual Fuel Heat Pump System?
A dual fuel system pairs a cold climate heat pump with your existing gas furnace. The system automatically switches between heat pump and gas based on outdoor temperature, running whichever fuel costs less at the current temperature.
When temps are 25-45°F (most of Denver's winter), the heat pump runs. COP stays above 2.5-3.0, making it cheaper than gas. This is where you save the most.
When temps drop below 15-20°F (only ~10-15 days per winter), the system switches to gas. Gas furnace provides cheaper heat when heat pump COP falls below the crossover point.
How the Calculator's Dual Fuel Mode Works
Toggle "Dual Fuel Mode" in the calculator above. Use the slider to set your switchover temperature (typically 15-25°F in Colorado). The calculator shows:
- •Annual cost for dual fuel vs all-electric heat pump vs gas-only
- •Hours per year each system runs based on Denver climate data
- •Savings comparison: which configuration costs less over a full heating season
Benefits of Dual Fuel in Colorado
Lowest Operating Costs
Use whichever fuel is cheaper at current temperature. No compromise.
Efficient Through Most of Winter
Heat pump runs during mild-cold weather where COP is highest (80% of heating season).
Keep Your Existing Furnace
If your gas furnace works, no need to replace it. Add a heat pump, wire them together.
Flexibility as Rates Change
If gas or electric rates shift, you're covered. System adapts to whichever is cheaper.
Solar + Heat Pump: What Changes
If you have rooftop solar (or are planning it), here's how a heat pump affects your solar math.
Your Solar Was Sized for Gas Heating
When your solar was installed, the system was sized to cover your electric bill at that time: appliances, lighting, and AC. Your gas furnace wasn't part of the electric equation. Adding a heat pump shifts your heating from gas to electric, which means your solar now has to cover a much larger load.
Solar covers ~100% of your electric usage. Net metering credits roll over from summer surplus to winter. Your electric bill is near zero. Everything is balanced.
The heat pump adds 3,000-6,000+ kWh/year to your electric usage. Your solar now covers 60-75% of the total. You'll buy the difference from the grid, especially in winter when solar production is lowest and heating demand is highest.
How the Calculator Models This
Toggle "Solar Impact" in the calculator above. Select "I have solar" and set your system size. The calculator models month-by-month net metering: summer solar surplus builds credits that offset some winter grid purchases. The result is your real effective heating cost after solar.
- •Coverage gap shows how much of your new total usage your solar still covers
- •Month-by-month breakdown shows winter deficit and summer surplus patterns
- •Effective heating rate shows what you actually pay per kWh after net metering credits
Planning Sequence Matters
Already have solar?
Use "I have solar" mode to see your real coverage gap. Your existing system was sized under Xcel's 120% cap based on pre-heat-pump usage. Budget for some grid electricity.
Planning both?
Install the heat pump first, then size solar to your new total usage. Xcel now allows sizing up to 200% of expected consumption, which gives room for electrification.
When to Use Heat Pump vs Furnace
Temperature thresholds explained: why COP matters more than the thermometer reading.
The Temperature Threshold Explained
Heat pump operating costs depend on COP (Coefficient of Performance), which declines as outdoor temperature drops. In Colorado, the crossover temperature where gas becomes cheaper typically falls between 15-25°F.
Why COP Decline Matters
As outdoor temperature drops, heat pumps work harder to extract heat from cold air. A heat pump with COP 3.5 at 47°F might drop to COP 2.2 at 5°F. This is normal physics, not a defect.
At COP 2.8 (with current Xcel rates: $1.10/therm gas, $0.14/kWh electric, as of 2026-02), heat pumps and gas furnaces cost about the same per BTU. Above COP 2.8, heat pumps are cheaper. Below COP 2.8, gas is cheaper.
Cold climate models maintain higher COP at low temps than standard models, but all heat pumps eventually hit the crossover point. That's why dual fuel makes sense in Colorado: you get heat pump efficiency when COP is high, plus the flexibility to switch to gas when rates favor it.
Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace Cost: The Real Numbers
When switching from gas-only heating makes financial sense (and when it doesn't).
Operating Cost Reality Check
With current Xcel rates ($1.10/therm gas, $0.14/kWh electric, as of 2026-02) and a properly sized cold climate heat pump, operating costs over a full Denver heating season are roughly equal: within $50-100 either way for most homes.
The calculator above shows exact numbers based on your equipment and home size. Use it to see where you land. But here's the honest breakdown:
When Heat Pumps Save Money
If you need AC anyway, a heat pump eliminates the cost of a separate air conditioner. You're effectively getting heating "for free" on top of required cooling. If your current furnace is old (60-80% AFUE), upgrading to a heat pump will likely save $200-400/year on operating costs.
When Operating Savings Are Modest
If you already have a 95% AFUE gas furnace and don't need AC, switching to an all-electric heat pump won't dramatically lower your heating bills. The real value comes from rebates (which offset upfront cost) and future-proofing against gas rate increases.
Where the Real Savings Are
The biggest savings aren't operating costs: they're upfront rebates. Xcel Energy rebates (up to $11,250), Colorado state tax credit ($1,000), and HEAR program (up to $8,000 if income-qualified) can reduce your net cost by $7,750-$20,250+. The federal 25C tax credit ended December 31, 2025; for 2026 installations, Xcel, Colorado state, and HEAR incentives remain available. For many homeowners, a heat pump system costs less to install than a furnace + AC combo after rebates.
Break-Even Analysis Considerations
If you're deciding between heat pump and gas furnace, here's what to factor into your payback calculation:
Heat pump installation: $13,200-18,400. Minus $7,750-$20,250+ in rebates (Xcel + state + HEAR if eligible). Compare net cost to furnace + AC replacement ($10,000-14,000). Typical ranges; actual costs depend on equipment and home. Get a free estimate for your situation.
Use calculator above. For most homes: $0-150/year either way. If you need AC, factor in cooling cost savings vs separate AC unit.
Colorado Clean Heat Plan may raise gas rates. Solar + battery adoption may lower effective electric rates. Heat pump gives you flexibility.
Both heat pumps and furnaces last 15-20 years with proper maintenance. No advantage either way on replacement cycle.
The Honest Bottom Line
Here's what the math actually shows for Colorado homeowners.
Gas is cheaper during the coldest weather
When temps drop below 15-20°F and heat pump COP falls below 2.5, gas wins on operating cost.
Heat pumps are cheaper during mild-cold weather
When temps are 25°F and above (which is most of Colorado's winter), heat pumps are competitive or cheaper.
Over a full heating season, it's roughly a wash
With current Colorado rates: if your heat pump is properly sized and doesn't rely heavily on electric resistance backup.
Backup heat changes everything
If you have a lot of backup heat running (electric resistance), your costs will be higher than gas. Proper sizing is critical.
Why Get a Heat Pump If Gas Isn't More Expensive?
Fair question. Here's the case.
Colorado's Clean Heat Plan is pushing electrification. Gas rates may rise. Electric rates may fall as renewables scale. A heat pump gives you flexibility.
A heat pump provides cooling too. If you'd need AC anyway, the incremental cost for heating is much lower.
With Xcel (up to $11,250), Colorado state ($1,000), and HEAR (up to $8,000 if income-qualified) rebates, a heat pump can cost similar to or less than a furnace + AC combination. The federal 25C tax credit ended Dec 2025; these incentives remain available for 2026.
Heat pumps run much quieter than furnaces. When your heat pump handles heating (most of Denver's winter), you get near-silent operation compared to burners igniting.
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